Will a Heat Pump Save Me Money?
Answer: probably not a huge amount. But you will get AC, though!
2025-26 Winter
We have an update! Here’s Figure 2 from this year’s projections:
Ladies and gentlemen, the cost of every fuel type has dropped relative to last year, partly due to an uproar about energy prices which is now a hot political issue across all of America. State lawmakers, the DOER/DPU & the Healey administration have been making various attempts to lower costs, and this is partly the outcome. (In some cases, we joined the conversation1.)
What I will say is this:
The primary benefit of heat pumps is still getting AC, rather than saving money
If you’re switching from an older, less efficient gas system, then you might see some savings - but it won’t be a lot
This changes if you have solar. You WILL save money if you have solar
It’s always worth it to switch from resistance electric (the $101.73 on the chart)
It’s been a cold start this winter, but we’ll see soon if it’s as long as last winter. That’ll be a factor in heating costs, too.
2024-25 Winter
End-of-Winter Update: based on EIA data, the price of gas nationally has risen more than the price of electricity. Overall, every fuel type was in higher demand due to the colder winter.
August 2025 update: seasonal heat pump rates are here! Expect to save next winter.
This one takes like 10 seconds, because the great Department of Energy Resources in Massachusetts releases a report answering this exact question every year.
Here is this year’s report: Massachusetts Household Heating Costs. Figure 2:
So, 3 takeaways:
If you’re heating with natural gas, prices rose this year (Green Energy Consumers Alliance has a great blog on the reasons for this) and the gap between heating with heat pump vs. natural gas has narrowed to about 10% on average.
Oil & heat pump heating costs roughly at parity this year!!
Electric resistance, as always, remains the low hanging fruit at roughly 3x the cost of heating with heat pumps.
Most of our installations at LC are oil to heat pump conversions, so while it’s good to know that costs won’t go up, the main benefit of a heat pump now is really the AC, comfort, & rebate.
That, and not having a giant tank of oil in your basement.
The Equipment Factor
What about those error bars, though? Here’s how we think about that:
So, if you’re going from high efficiency gas boiler → low efficiency ducted heat pump, you’ll likely see higher costs. But if you have a super old furnace in an old house, and you decide to opt for mini-splits (which are more efficient than ducted systems), you’ll be way more likely to save money.
3/1 EIA Update
Natural gas going up by 10% is a bit of a surprise here. Rates differ in different markets based on public utility regulation, of course, but if trends hold, it would be interest to consider whether we have a triple-parity situation where heating with natural gas, heat pumps, and oil are essentially the same cost.
Caveat: Municipal Light Plants
If you live in any one of these towns, your electricity rate is like, half of EverSource/National Grid’s basic rates. While you may not get the $10k rebate from Mass Save, you WILL save a ton of money on heating bills switching to heat pumps.
For example, here’s Groveland coming in at half the cost of Eversource & NG:
If you’re in MLP territory, consider getting a heat pump!
Caveat: Heat Pump Specific Rates
Update: this is live for all utilities in 2025-26! TBD on opt-in or opt-out enrollment.
Unitil seems to be rolling out heat pump-specific rates soon. There's talk of National Grid looking to do the same thing.
How much would you save with this heat pump rate? It'll shave about 6 cents off. That's significant:
I don’t think this will rollout statewide this year, but we’ll keep an eye on this. It’ll be a factor in future years, along with the constantly shifting commodity prices of oil & gas.
