Should you get a heat pump now or later?
Real scenarios, and cases where you may be better off getting a heat pump in 2026
As you are likely aware, we are oversubscribed for our Fall 2025 bulk deal. So you may be considering other options for heat pump installations. If you’re in this situation, my message is: shop local, and don’t feel pressured.
Additionally: we will be running another bulk deal starting in February 2026, and I’ll be damned if our prices are not the same.
Expiring Rebates Pricing Impact
It’s not worth paying $10,000 over market prices just to claim an additional $3,000 in rebates.
The cumulative difference in rebate values from 2025 to 2026 is approximately $3,000.
Federal 25C tax credit: $2,0001
Mass Save 2026 changes: $10,000 upper limit → $8,500 upper limit, and $3,000/ton → ~$2,700/ton.
A lot of people install 3-ton systems, so your Mass Save rebate would drop from $9,000 to ~$8,000. Combined with the federal tax credit, you’re looking at a $3,000 difference.
Spring 2026 Prices & Crossover Points
Our bulk deals aim for approximately 10% to 15% below market prices. (Otherwise, why would you even care to participate?)
Here are the anticipated prices for next spring:
Let’s work out the math.
Ductless
Suppose you live in a triple decker or a cape house & you have 5 (ductless) zones to condition. That’s the $24,750 baseline price. Suppose there are 4 options:
Option A: fall bulk deal (not possible, unless you get off our waitlist)
Option B: PE-backed HVAC contractor tries to pressure you into a $30,000 install
Option C: local contractor offers you a $27,000 installation
Option D: you get on the LC spring waitlist & install with us for the spring
As you can see, the net cost evens out between options C & D. My recommendation is that you go with a local contractor who isn’t owned by private equity2, because they will more likely give you option C rather than B.
Here’s how it looks for a 6-zone installation, which may be relevant for those with a single family colonial home opting for ductless:
Ducted
Same rule holds here. If you’re seeing prices ~$5k greater than what we have on our menu prices, it’s probably just better to wait until the spring.
Equipment Availability
Based on installations this fall, manufacturers to different degrees are making last-minute adjustments to their equipment. From missing leak detection sensors (Mitsubishi) to manual branch box configuration (LG) to products not even on the market yet (Daikin), manufacturers are still very much trying to roll out their full suite of products for the R-454B/R-32 generation.
These problems go away in 2026.
You can read more about our first impressions here:
Don’t Forget Seasonality
These are my price projections. I’ve observed this market for long enough (2 years) to know that the slow season is in the winter. Work is slow in January & early Feb (coldest months, days are short), so realistically, if you’re looking for off-season installations, you’re looking at late Feb & onwards.
This is why we tend to spend January & early Feb on service calls, and design.
Shop Local
The private-equity owned HVAC contractors are going to jack up prices to take advantage of the surge in market demand. You can already imagine the conversation:
You: .. are you serious? $50,000 for a heat pump installation?
PE-backed Salesperson: Yes, and prices are going to only keep on going up. You have 2 months left to get the federal tax credit, and Mass Save rebates are going to go down as well. But I can get you in. I’ll actually also waive the $1,000 down payment if you sign today.
I recommend shopping local (& supporting small businesses!). Here is a list of 30 contractors in the market, including ~15 that are smaller.
And here’s our benchmark from 2 years ago, with a real house.
What Setup is Right for My House?
We created an automated system design platform to give you an approximate baseline of how much a system may cost for your house (e.g. no complexity adders). It’ll only quote ductless & ducted for now (not mixed, due to these reasons) but it’ll give you a ceiling of how much to expect.
You can try it out here: https://www.manatee.energy/
Note: it will give you 2025 rebates. You’ll want to compare pre-rebate subtotals for an apples-to-apples comparison.
Otherwise, feel free to just refer once again to our pricing menu.
Why are you doing this?
Because you shouldn’t get a bad deal for trying to do a good thing.
When we started Laminar Collective, one reach goal was to have enough heft to influence market pricing. A dream was to establish a market clearing price: if you know you can get a good installation at certain menu prices, that serves as a check against any contractor (usually large, PE-owned ones) that may try to charge you too much.
For example, I know that bananas at TJ’s are 23 cents. So if someone comes along and tries to sell me a banana for $10, I would say no.
Alternatively, I wouldn’t buy Costco stock for more than $967.90, because I know that I have the option of buying it at $967.90:
For various reasons, I don’t think heat pumps will ever have the same degree of transparency & information as other market goods (one-time purchase, service, info asymmetry, etc.). But I want to do the best I can, for as long as I can, to make sure that people who want to electrify their homes get rewarded, not punished, for doing so.
Big footnote: if your installation cost is covered entirely by Mass Save rebate + HEAT loan, there may be a chance that your install isn’t eligible for the $2,000 federal tax credit. This is generally applicable for some smaller installations. I’m not a tax lawyer, though, so ask your accountant/tax person!
Caveat: if you are the type of person who wants to get an extended warranty and don’t mind paying tens of thousands additional for luxury service, then sure, go for that PE-backed contractor. They are luxury services, and I just want people to have a Toyota.