Mitsubishi Fixes Its Biggest Mistake

By addressing its most glaring deficiency, a sub-standard turndown ratio, Mitsubishi has an early lead in the competition for the best heat pump in the post-R-410A era.

Update: Japan is getting hit with 24% tariffs, and to our knowledge, Mitsubishi heat pumps are primarily manufactured in Japan. We are monitoring this situation.

Update #2: okay.. is the trade war over? Paused? Nobody knows!!

Update #3: with the tariff truce, our baseline expectation is back to our original equipment pricing premium between R-410a and R-454b + 10%.

For a while, Mitsubishi’s glaring issue has been the high minimum heating output, which means that it’s been consistently oversized for smaller homes requiring more than 4 zones (most homes) with a heat load <22,000 BTU. This includes a LOT of triple deckers, smaller single family homes, and 2-family buildings, and unfortunately, it leads to higher costs, and inefficient performance.

From our Triple Decker installation article

With the latest model refresh in the post-R-410A refrigerant era, it seems like that issue will be much less pronounced.

From Min. Heating of 22,500 BTU to 12,600 (!!)

Here’s the submittal for the newer, R-454B 3-ton unit, along with the min. capacities:

This is A LOT better. We see a lot of smaller single family homes out there hovering around 1,500 sq ft, and 20,000 BTU heating required based on the Manual J. While we have consistently recommended other brands over Mitsubishi in this space due to performance, Mitsubishi may have narrowed that gap.

Specs for all the R-410A models, pre-model update

There will still be a pricing premium between Mitsubishi and everyone else, but thankfully, we’ll end up with fewer oversized systems thanks to this change. Daikin & Samsung will retain the best-in-class status for smaller units (and may compete for the mid-sized home segment when their new R-32 models come out!).

Pricing Impact

This is straight from a supply house website as of March 25th, 2025. It seems like stock for the R-454B model is not available yet, but the listing is there and we are seeing a 4% equipment price premium.

The standard, R-410A version:

The R-454B version:

5/1 Update: 454b prices unchanged on Ferguson’s website. We’ll keep monitoring.

My guess is that Mitsubishi will hike prices for the R-454B condenser in the busy summer season (as they typically do), while supply houses keep the R-410A prices steady to clear out remaining inventory. If we assume a 5% price hike, you’ll end up with a 9% premium for the R-454B model.

Given that equipment constitutes ~30% of a total quote, we think this will result in like, a 3% rise in overall quotes in the future. That translates to a ~$750 price bump¹

Update: if the 24% tariffs on Japan holds, we’re anticipating a 10% overall increase in Mitsubishi prices, and a whopping 30% price difference between R-410A and R-454B models. Stay tuned for more.

Update: *Narrator*: they didn’t hold. Or maybe they will. Who knows.

Should I wait?

I think this mostly impacts homes that are smaller, and considering a 5-head Mitsubishi setup with a branch box. If your home is much bigger, there’s no real performance improvement here. Plenty of people have R-410A systems, and replacement parts will be around for a while. I would caution that you deeply vet your technician (NOT comfort advisor) during the installation for proper duct sizing & refrigerant line brazing, though, so your R-410A system lasts as long as possible.

Note: you’ll also probably have to wait until the fall, unless you want to pay the highest prices of the year during the summer season. Take this into account.

The Laminar Collective Take

This is good for the market, and it’s good for heat pump adoption. I think that we still need a company pushing the boundaries of what’s high performing because at the end of the day, there are still a lot of people skeptical about whether heat pumps actually keep homes warm or not. I think it’s necessary to have a gold-standard cold-climate product (for bigger homes, at least) to pave the way for more affordable, mass-market brands.

Long story short: with this update, Mitsubishi throws down the gauntlet vs. every other cold-climate heat pump manufacturer. The progress in this space reminds me a lot of EVs, where improvements and fierce competition between the Teslas & BYDs & Xiaomis are producing leaps and bounds in performance that far surpasses what we’re seeing from ICE vehicles. (When was the last time you heard about a gas furnace pushing the boundaries of performance?)

For that reason we are super excited to see every other new model come out this year. Stay tuned! We’ll be reporting on all of it.

1. Based on an average ticket size of $25,000.